Saturday 9 January 2010

Climate is What You Expect, Weather is What You Get

If you hear someone bleating on about how given the recent cold weather then climate change is nonsense ask them, "Next time there's a heatwave in summer or an unusually mild spell in winter will you accept you were wrong? If a cold snap means the weather is getting colder, surely a spell of hot weather proves it is getting warmer". Clearly all rubbish. A bout of extreme weather does not prove anything about climate change. Climate is the average weather over decades. Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
That said, it is perfectly reasonable to ask why, if the World is warming, have so many places in the northern hemisphere been experiencing record lows? The answer is that for the past few decades cold Arctic air has mostly stayed in the Arctic over winter, trapped by strong winds spinning around the pole. This winter the vortex has weakened and in many places cold air is spilling further south than usual. The result has been freezing weather as far afield as Florida, China and the U.K.. However, the Arctic, Greenland and much of the Mediterranean and southern Asia have been warmer than normal.
Some areas could have more cold weather in the future as part of just such changes in weather distribution. That will not change the big picture, the World warmed over the 20th century and it is going to get warmer still. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either intellectually challenged or dishonest.

What's the best way to get two whales in a Mini?
You don't it's far better to get to Wales by train to save carbon emissions............. sorry!!

Here is a link to a talk (on the excellent TED website... bookmark it) with Rachel Pike explaining the science behind a climate headline, just a few minutes, cut and paste the link.

http://www.ted.com/talks/rachel_pike_the_science_behind_a_climate_headline.html

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