Wednesday 2 June 2010

Truth Will Out, rather than Out With Truth!

Yes, yes after a little while I am back, and very pleased to have been goaded and pressed by many (yes actually, many) to put fingers to key board and continue this blog, thank you.
Much has been going on and I'd like to consider the state of climate change understanding and action. The last few months have seen two big and worrying events; the feeble conclusions of the Copenhagen summit and the severe undermining of opinion regarding the facts behind climate change by the revealing of clumsy, thoughtless and silly pieces of climate scientist's emails as well as ill considered. yet quoted "facts". regarding glacial melt by high ranking IPCC representatives.
You may have noticed then that it has all gone a bit quiet. Scientists and climate change commentators have kept their heads down, have shut up and clearly hope all the nasty deniers and sceptics and reporters go away and it will be alright in the end.
A rigorous appraisal of climate research is under way and scrutiny of results and conclusions is intense and merciless in it's thoroughness. Will this be enough? Will the scientists and advocates of action to mitigate climate change be able to rely on the gradual acceptance that there is a burning issue with global warming?
I am a sceptic, but not a denier. The two could not be more different. A climate sceptic examines specific claims one by one, carefully considers the evidence for each, and is willing to follow the facts where they lead.
A climate denier has a position staked out in advance, and sorts through the data employing "confirmation bias" - the tendency to look for and find confirmatory evidence for pre-existing beliefs and ignore or dismiss the rest. Denial is typically driven by ideology or religious belief, where the belief takes precedence over evidence. They will often see themselves as underdogs fighting a corrupt elite.
No wonder it's all gone quiet out there.
Denialist movements can be beaten. Patient rebuttal is a powerful weapon. Let them be heard, examine their evidence, consider their interpretation. If they have anything of substance to say, then the truth will out.
Climate deniers wield considerable influence. There are many for whom it would be most beneficial for evidence of climate change, and especially "man made" climate change, to be wrong.
Eternal vigilance is the price we must pay for truth. Those who are in possession of the facts have a duty to stand up to the deniers and debunk them repeatedly and everywhere until they can take a proper sceptical view of the evidence and then I would think an acceptance following their scrutiny of the evidence..
We must consider the following;
1. They might be right and we should subject their arguments to proper scrutiny and if they stand up then they are likely to be correct.
2. They might be completely wrong, but in the process of examining their claims we discover the truth and improve our thinking.
3. It is never possible to know the absolute truth about anything (not in science anyway)so we must always be on the alert for where our ideas need to change.
I continue to read up and discover whatever I can about global warming and man's influence of natural systems. I remain convinced that we are at a great time of change for mankind and that decisions taken now can have massive repercussions for our children, preferably for their good and the good of all living things.